Sunday, March 30, 2008

Dropping Berk for now, but to trail or to stop...

I'm having a bit of an internal struggle with my few dollars here. I can sell Berkshire at market on Monday, and it'll likely open at $4,452 where it closed Friday. Or I can leave my trailing stop in place at 1% and have it fire at $4,407. Basically, it could cost me $45 to stay in, on the hope that it bumps up even further—not terribly likely. I'm expecting it to bounce a little bit lower, or a lot lower. It took on a nice boost on Friday. It'll level out.

So should I just exit now? Or let the TS stand?

Well, I've converted the TS from a 1% to a 31 point stop. This'll let me have a bit more granularity over the TS (on a stock as large as BRK, not being able to subdivide percentage points is a bitch) and let me realize any additional gains that may hit Monday morning.

I'm starting really wish I lived on the east coast. Waking up at 6:20am to catch market open is killing me. If you know me personally, you know that I'm rarely up before 10am, and rarely in bed before 3am, so it's rough.

Once again, just to reiterate: If I were in the market for a long-term investment strategy, I would seriously dump whatever excess cash I have into Berkshire. I just would rather keep liquid on the many other opportunities (and risk) I can play into elsewhere. And being a more active trader definitely makes this blog more interesting.

I still see BRK hitting $5,000+ in the next 6 months and $5,500 in the next year. There's no reason it needs to stop—Warren keeps building its value with solid, well-underpinned, stable growth not attached to anything as volatile as fuel and housing costs. And he always buys on the dip.

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