I forgot to post that I'm actually on vacation right now, on a cruise ship for about 2 weeks. I made a QQQQs play, looking for it as a long-term. Overbought, so that I was on margin, had bought at the dip, caught that I was in margin while at the airport, sold it off in afters for about $120+ profit.
I made some on my MOS play.
I'm watching V break its initial resistance. $100 by August, anyone? (I don't own any, though...)
And I have a standing bracketed OCO order for TSRA when it hits $19.45, stop at $18.85, trailing stop set to trigger at $21.25 for 17 cents. We'll see if that plays.
If you don't see any movement here, that's because I'm gone til May 13th. Cheers!
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Long TSRA, Short MOS, missed on AAPL
So I bought 20 AAPL at $162.60 right before close yesterday. And then I watched it spike amazingly to the $171 point in after-hours. And I didn't hit sell. As I was walking around the office a few minutes later, and then back to my desk, I was wondering why I hadn't at that point. By the time I had come back, it had gone from a ~$160 profit to ($133). Awesome. Ended up leveling out, but I don't want to hold it long.
I've loaded up an interesting play in Mosaic Company (MOS). They had a rough day yesterday and a quick look at their 6-month charts shows that every time they've had a pretty rough day, they've continued to slide the next day, sometimes to much greater effect. But they've always bounced up enough to trigger an upper-limit buy-to-cover, so I've pushed it up a bit high.
My order looks like this:
Sell -20 MOS @ 131.50 LMT
Buy +20 MOS STP 136.00
OR
Buy +20 MOS TRSTP MARK+.10 WHEN MOS MARK AT OR BELOW 129.00
Basically, I want to sell short almost immediately when the market opens. If the stock turns around and spikes up to $136, I'll buy to cover my position, total loss: $100.
If the stock flies through the $129 mark, a trailing stop will take effect such that if it rebounds by more than 10 cents at any point, a buy to cover will take effect and lock in some profit. If that hits, minimum locked in profit: $49 or so.
Might turn out that I'm fucking up how I place limit orders with shorting, but I'm learning the platform and figure my stops are in place to protect me from my own stupidity.
This will be my third roundtrip if it executes, so it's a good thing I'm leaving. I need to liquidate my Scottrade positions or convert them into something more stable. Maybe try the DJIA; see if we can see some gains in 19 days. We're past the nasty bank stuff and the rough earnings period, so we might see some bounceback and growth. Berkshire is also trading at a near-6-month low, but I won't be here to lock in the profits on that and Scottrade doesn't have logical/bracketed trades.
We'll see if I keep losing with my position ideas. I need to get the hell out of AAPL as well. I'm going to put a stop on that to make sure it doesn't tank.
Edit: AAPL exit positions:
SELL -20 AAPL STP 156.00
SELL -20 AAPL TRSTP MARK-.26 WHEN AAPL MARK AT OR ABOVE 164
I've loaded up an interesting play in Mosaic Company (MOS). They had a rough day yesterday and a quick look at their 6-month charts shows that every time they've had a pretty rough day, they've continued to slide the next day, sometimes to much greater effect. But they've always bounced up enough to trigger an upper-limit buy-to-cover, so I've pushed it up a bit high.
My order looks like this:
Sell -20 MOS @ 131.50 LMT
Buy +20 MOS STP 136.00
OR
Buy +20 MOS TRSTP MARK+.10 WHEN MOS MARK AT OR BELOW 129.00
Basically, I want to sell short almost immediately when the market opens. If the stock turns around and spikes up to $136, I'll buy to cover my position, total loss: $100.
If the stock flies through the $129 mark, a trailing stop will take effect such that if it rebounds by more than 10 cents at any point, a buy to cover will take effect and lock in some profit. If that hits, minimum locked in profit: $49 or so.
Might turn out that I'm fucking up how I place limit orders with shorting, but I'm learning the platform and figure my stops are in place to protect me from my own stupidity.
This will be my third roundtrip if it executes, so it's a good thing I'm leaving. I need to liquidate my Scottrade positions or convert them into something more stable. Maybe try the DJIA; see if we can see some gains in 19 days. We're past the nasty bank stuff and the rough earnings period, so we might see some bounceback and growth. Berkshire is also trading at a near-6-month low, but I won't be here to lock in the profits on that and Scottrade doesn't have logical/bracketed trades.
We'll see if I keep losing with my position ideas. I need to get the hell out of AAPL as well. I'm going to put a stop on that to make sure it doesn't tank.
Edit: AAPL exit positions:
SELL -20 AAPL STP 156.00
SELL -20 AAPL TRSTP MARK-.26 WHEN AAPL MARK AT OR ABOVE 164
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Sold 200 TSRA @ 20.00, Profit: $104.30
So after having re-bought into TSRA another 200 shares on thinkorswim for $19.4285, my trailing stop limit triggered at 20.00.
This is because I was fundamentally misunderstanding the utility of the trailing stop limit, which is to say, simpler than I was making it. Instead of a trailing stop that only triggers once it hits a limit, it's instead a trailing stop that triggers instantly, with an upper limit that will force a sale no matter what. A bit less useful, but basically a hybrid way of placing an order with two levels of protection in a single order.
TOS does allow you to create triggers and rules, though, so the way around this and to get the desired behavior I was talking about yesterday would be to create your basic bracketed OCO with a low stop where you want it and then to create a trailing stop with the MARK - whatever value, and a "AT OR ABOVE" trigger on the mark price.
Fortunately, TSRA swung back down just after hitting 20.00, but not before hitting 20.22, which means my TS would've triggered at 20.12, basically killing $20 in profit. Probably the cheapest form of that mistak I could make; if it had triggered on the next 20.00 touch, where the stock broke out all the way up to 20.70, I would've been much more pissed.
This is because I was fundamentally misunderstanding the utility of the trailing stop limit, which is to say, simpler than I was making it. Instead of a trailing stop that only triggers once it hits a limit, it's instead a trailing stop that triggers instantly, with an upper limit that will force a sale no matter what. A bit less useful, but basically a hybrid way of placing an order with two levels of protection in a single order.
TOS does allow you to create triggers and rules, though, so the way around this and to get the desired behavior I was talking about yesterday would be to create your basic bracketed OCO with a low stop where you want it and then to create a trailing stop with the MARK - whatever value, and a "AT OR ABOVE" trigger on the mark price.
Fortunately, TSRA swung back down just after hitting 20.00, but not before hitting 20.22, which means my TS would've triggered at 20.12, basically killing $20 in profit. Probably the cheapest form of that mistak I could make; if it had triggered on the next 20.00 touch, where the stock broke out all the way up to 20.70, I would've been much more pissed.
AAPL Earnings...
Every once in awhile, I set out to do something that I know is probably dumb, but I'm determined to do anyway. Most the time, this is a losing proposition.
There's all manner of speculation on AAPL's earnings coming out after hours today. Some are saying they'll at least meet, others are saying they'll exceed. Since there are expectations they'll exceed, they have exceed by something of a landslide in order to break past the priced-in pre-expectations game already being waged. An analyst downgrade today helped cool it down a bit by bumping it down about 8 points, settling in at 160. (You'll recall I bought AAPL in my first stock move; an ill-advised single share at 125 last month.)
It's been slowly trending up as we've been approaching earnings; again the market can price things in based on their abstracted layer of expectations. A meet or lightly exceeds is probably pretty tightly priced in right now.
The flip side of this of course, is if that fail to meet. I don't think this is likely, but if they pull a GE, watch out: The Qs will drop and you'll see the NASDAQ as a whole take a slide. It will be a bad thing.
I don't think they'll fail. I think we'll see some sell off heading into it in anticipation of missed expectations. And then hopefully that'll take some of the priced-in effect off and they'll post good numbers in the call. Apple is a strong brand that has become considerably more price-competitive and is outselling, in terms of growth, their competitors by a 10-to-1 ratio. This helps make them recession-resistant, but in any "splurge" item, we could easily see Apple issue crap guidance for Q3. Poor forward-moving guidance can take the wind out of any positive earnings announcement and can even cause a stock to slide heavily in the face of amazing earnings increases, as seen last week in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
There, the market had priced in some sky-high expectations and the guidance shifts scared investors who felt it an indication of hospital belt-tightening and further anemic growth to come in the "recessiveish" market.
We'll see if AAPL follows the same trend.
I'm thinking we'll see some impressive numbers. If AAPL sells off pre-earnings and hits $153, I have an order for 20 shares, STOP @ 152.00, TRSTPLMT MARK-.30 @ 167, which means either it'll stop sell $1 down at $152, or it'll initiate a trailing stop of -.30 cents if the market price hits $167.
We shall see. Most I can lose is $20.
There's all manner of speculation on AAPL's earnings coming out after hours today. Some are saying they'll at least meet, others are saying they'll exceed. Since there are expectations they'll exceed, they have exceed by something of a landslide in order to break past the priced-in pre-expectations game already being waged. An analyst downgrade today helped cool it down a bit by bumping it down about 8 points, settling in at 160. (You'll recall I bought AAPL in my first stock move; an ill-advised single share at 125 last month.)
It's been slowly trending up as we've been approaching earnings; again the market can price things in based on their abstracted layer of expectations. A meet or lightly exceeds is probably pretty tightly priced in right now.
The flip side of this of course, is if that fail to meet. I don't think this is likely, but if they pull a GE, watch out: The Qs will drop and you'll see the NASDAQ as a whole take a slide. It will be a bad thing.
I don't think they'll fail. I think we'll see some sell off heading into it in anticipation of missed expectations. And then hopefully that'll take some of the priced-in effect off and they'll post good numbers in the call. Apple is a strong brand that has become considerably more price-competitive and is outselling, in terms of growth, their competitors by a 10-to-1 ratio. This helps make them recession-resistant, but in any "splurge" item, we could easily see Apple issue crap guidance for Q3. Poor forward-moving guidance can take the wind out of any positive earnings announcement and can even cause a stock to slide heavily in the face of amazing earnings increases, as seen last week in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
There, the market had priced in some sky-high expectations and the guidance shifts scared investors who felt it an indication of hospital belt-tightening and further anemic growth to come in the "recessiveish" market.
We'll see if AAPL follows the same trend.
I'm thinking we'll see some impressive numbers. If AAPL sells off pre-earnings and hits $153, I have an order for 20 shares, STOP @ 152.00, TRSTPLMT MARK-.30 @ 167, which means either it'll stop sell $1 down at $152, or it'll initiate a trailing stop of -.30 cents if the market price hits $167.
We shall see. Most I can lose is $20.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Getting burned by a slide: stops ahoy
So I placed my dueling strategies into place; one at $20.00 stop at $19.85 (there had been a lot of support just above that, figured it wouldn't trigger; was wrong) and another at $19.55, in case it broke through its support, with another stop at like $19.20 or so.
Sadly, it slid through both my stops, but that's only sad to the degree that those two plays only cost me $150, versus the $230 I lost holding my Scottrade 200 shares through the entire plummet. I know, how stupid to have the stops on one side and not the other; true story.
Moral of the story: you should never have to ride a downtrend. Every second a long position goes down at any speed costs you. If you bail at the start of a slide and pick back up once it starts to level/turn around, you can "gap" the dips and make money on each and every upswing. Of course, predicting accurately the turnaround can be a bit of a bitch; I didn't think it was going to break through its support so harshly but alas, some news moved it and down it went 5%.
Still, my strategies worked in that my losses were minimized; locked in at the level I had already determined. And much more expensive on Scottrade, where they weren't.
Sadly, it slid through both my stops, but that's only sad to the degree that those two plays only cost me $150, versus the $230 I lost holding my Scottrade 200 shares through the entire plummet. I know, how stupid to have the stops on one side and not the other; true story.
Moral of the story: you should never have to ride a downtrend. Every second a long position goes down at any speed costs you. If you bail at the start of a slide and pick back up once it starts to level/turn around, you can "gap" the dips and make money on each and every upswing. Of course, predicting accurately the turnaround can be a bit of a bitch; I didn't think it was going to break through its support so harshly but alas, some news moved it and down it went 5%.
Still, my strategies worked in that my losses were minimized; locked in at the level I had already determined. And much more expensive on Scottrade, where they weren't.
Building a better platform: Fun with thinkorswim
I put $5,000 or so into a thinkorswim account, the cheeky, quirky brokerage with amazing software and low fees. TOS does things a bit differently: for one, they offer 1.5 cent/share ($5 min.) trades, making them cheaper than Scottrade up to 466 shares, with a $10 cap. And they send you a stuffed monkey when you fund an account. I'm not even fucking kidding.
As if that weren't enough, they offer you plenty of platform tools and rules-based trading good times which will allow me to sleep instead of trying to wake up to make ill-advised, emotion-linked trading decisions in the 5am pre-market. TOS allows me to schedule pre-market limit orders ahead of time.
But one of my favorite features as I'm just learning to scratch the surface of their desktop surface, is the ability to perform cool trades like a bracketed OCO (one-cancels-others) trade. And the ability to perform trailing stop limits.
So check this out: I have an order to BUY 200 shares of Tessera if it hits $20.25. If and only if that order is performed, two possible trigger orders take effect: If TSRA bounces down to $19.85, I sell all 200 shares. If TSRA hits $20.70, however, a trailing stop is then and only THEN initiated with a 10 cent trail. This is two parts awesome right here: The power of the trailing stop is tempered heavily by the fact that it leaves you vulnerable at all price points along its increase.
Consider: If you buy 100 shares of TSRA at $20.00 a share, and you want to lock in a potential profit with a trailing stop of around 10 cents, it leaves you vulnerable as soon as the order is placed. If you place the TS order right after your purchase order, as Scottrade's regular, non-Elite (their daytrade product) tool forces you to, you're vulnerable if the stock bites it to $19.90. Worse, you're vulnerable if the stock bounces up to $20.20 and then dips back to $20.10. With a trailing stop limit, the TS only activates once the limit is reached: $20.70. Then, if it dips down to $20.60, a sell is triggered and you can be absolutely positive of the minimum potential profit threshold if the TRSTPLMT is triggered.
Further, you can set a regular, non-limit-triggered stop at the same time, a bit further down if you're expecting it to dip lower than 10 cents early on; in this case, 15 cents lower than where I bought it. It seems unlikely for tomorrow, and in fact TSRA may never hit $20.25 to trigger the initial buy, but if it does, I have a stop already in place, detached from "let's hope for a swing back up" emotion and playing by the rules I've set. What's better is that I can lock in my profit without worrying about a premature exit; the exit only plays once I've hit a level I'm satisfied with.
The OCO portion of the deal simply means that if ONE of those exits is fired, the other exit order is cancelled.
I've added a second layer: If TSRA tanks miserably down to $19.25, a BUY order will trigger for another 200, with similar spreads up and down. This allows me to exit on the trip down and pick up once it hits what I perceive to be bottom.
TOS has a ton of other tools, and this is just my impressions after my first hour playing with it. It's definitely daunting software, but they have lots of video tutorials that are straightforward and really helpful. I think I may be moving my Scottrade holdings over to TOS, which is a bit sad because the Scottrade people are very nice, but TOS just beats them in features AND price and I can't play my mini-strategies with Scottrade—that leaves me too vulnerable...
We'll see how things play out tomorrow and if any of these trigger.
As if that weren't enough, they offer you plenty of platform tools and rules-based trading good times which will allow me to sleep instead of trying to wake up to make ill-advised, emotion-linked trading decisions in the 5am pre-market. TOS allows me to schedule pre-market limit orders ahead of time.
But one of my favorite features as I'm just learning to scratch the surface of their desktop surface, is the ability to perform cool trades like a bracketed OCO (one-cancels-others) trade. And the ability to perform trailing stop limits.
So check this out: I have an order to BUY 200 shares of Tessera if it hits $20.25. If and only if that order is performed, two possible trigger orders take effect: If TSRA bounces down to $19.85, I sell all 200 shares. If TSRA hits $20.70, however, a trailing stop is then and only THEN initiated with a 10 cent trail. This is two parts awesome right here: The power of the trailing stop is tempered heavily by the fact that it leaves you vulnerable at all price points along its increase.
Consider: If you buy 100 shares of TSRA at $20.00 a share, and you want to lock in a potential profit with a trailing stop of around 10 cents, it leaves you vulnerable as soon as the order is placed. If you place the TS order right after your purchase order, as Scottrade's regular, non-Elite (their daytrade product) tool forces you to, you're vulnerable if the stock bites it to $19.90. Worse, you're vulnerable if the stock bounces up to $20.20 and then dips back to $20.10. With a trailing stop limit, the TS only activates once the limit is reached: $20.70. Then, if it dips down to $20.60, a sell is triggered and you can be absolutely positive of the minimum potential profit threshold if the TRSTPLMT is triggered.
Further, you can set a regular, non-limit-triggered stop at the same time, a bit further down if you're expecting it to dip lower than 10 cents early on; in this case, 15 cents lower than where I bought it. It seems unlikely for tomorrow, and in fact TSRA may never hit $20.25 to trigger the initial buy, but if it does, I have a stop already in place, detached from "let's hope for a swing back up" emotion and playing by the rules I've set. What's better is that I can lock in my profit without worrying about a premature exit; the exit only plays once I've hit a level I'm satisfied with.
The OCO portion of the deal simply means that if ONE of those exits is fired, the other exit order is cancelled.
I've added a second layer: If TSRA tanks miserably down to $19.25, a BUY order will trigger for another 200, with similar spreads up and down. This allows me to exit on the trip down and pick up once it hits what I perceive to be bottom.
TOS has a ton of other tools, and this is just my impressions after my first hour playing with it. It's definitely daunting software, but they have lots of video tutorials that are straightforward and really helpful. I think I may be moving my Scottrade holdings over to TOS, which is a bit sad because the Scottrade people are very nice, but TOS just beats them in features AND price and I can't play my mini-strategies with Scottrade—that leaves me too vulnerable...
We'll see how things play out tomorrow and if any of these trigger.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
GOOG spikes dramatically...
Damn. 17% in aftermarket from $445 to $525. Should've jumped on board, but it was looking kinda scary with their new quality controls. Be greedy when others are fearful, though...
ABT is just festering for no good reason. I'm going to hold it a few more days and then dump it if we don't get Xience news. Sad that it beats expectations, beats guidance and posts strong numbers and still drops. Worse still that it's doing this in the midst of plenty of other pharmas posting bad numbers and it's not able to pick up slack from them.
Still waiting on Amkor news from TSRA... Still have high hopes.
I think I'm going to buy into AAPL for next week's earnings call and go long, perhaps for the trip. We'll see how risky I'm feeling. For now, I'm still down about $100 total. Kinda sucks. (The Coverstor shows the return on my brother's in-and-out movement, so that's why it's showing a positive return.)
ABT is just festering for no good reason. I'm going to hold it a few more days and then dump it if we don't get Xience news. Sad that it beats expectations, beats guidance and posts strong numbers and still drops. Worse still that it's doing this in the midst of plenty of other pharmas posting bad numbers and it's not able to pick up slack from them.
Still waiting on Amkor news from TSRA... Still have high hopes.
I think I'm going to buy into AAPL for next week's earnings call and go long, perhaps for the trip. We'll see how risky I'm feeling. For now, I'm still down about $100 total. Kinda sucks. (The Coverstor shows the return on my brother's in-and-out movement, so that's why it's showing a positive return.)
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Feeling the burn...
Definitely a painful few days, as I'm now at a net loss of about $150. Awesome.
The market has just taken a drubbing the past few days. It doesn't help that this is "banks tell us how hard they've fucked up" week, with WaMu and a bunch of others writing down and taking losses like crazy. Add to that GE's performance on Friday and my tech and pharma stocks are eating it just from the halo effect.
Intel posted good numbers which should help, Abbott SHOULD get approval for their coated stents, perhaps this week and they announce pre-market today, in about 2-3 hours, I'd imagine. Hopefully good news; all signs point to yes. If they're anything below expectations, I'm pretty rightly fucked.
Rumor abounds that Tessera won the arbitration with Amkor; they're just discussing awards now. That will be huge for them, so I'm holding both these long for now, basically tapping my cash reserves entirely. Need a bounceback here; it's getting brutal and I'm not even in financials, aerospace/airlines or retail. Ugh.
The market has just taken a drubbing the past few days. It doesn't help that this is "banks tell us how hard they've fucked up" week, with WaMu and a bunch of others writing down and taking losses like crazy. Add to that GE's performance on Friday and my tech and pharma stocks are eating it just from the halo effect.
Intel posted good numbers which should help, Abbott SHOULD get approval for their coated stents, perhaps this week and they announce pre-market today, in about 2-3 hours, I'd imagine. Hopefully good news; all signs point to yes. If they're anything below expectations, I'm pretty rightly fucked.
Rumor abounds that Tessera won the arbitration with Amkor; they're just discussing awards now. That will be huge for them, so I'm holding both these long for now, basically tapping my cash reserves entirely. Need a bounceback here; it's getting brutal and I'm not even in financials, aerospace/airlines or retail. Ugh.
Friday, April 11, 2008
This is why you need stop losses...
Today was a bloody day all around and not something I needed to be around for. Let's examine what I did wrong:
I hesitated in setting a stop loss for Tessera at, say, $21. In my mind, if it bounced to $21 again, it was just going to bounce back up and I didn't want to miss the swing up and lose some money. Instead, it tanked right through its support to $20.29. Jesus. Each of those cents it dropped cost me $2. I'm down $206 on $4,058 worth of Tessera, because I didn't set a stop loss.
Tessera isn't dropping on any news. It's not dropping because of a loss of value or patent issues. No, it dropped, like just about everything else today, on news that GE fucked up and didn't hit their estimates. Because GE is such a far-reaching conglomerate and because they have some exposure to subprime with GE Capital/Finance, they double-whammied and took everyone down with them.
Since I want to be in Tessera *anyway*, this was a particularly painful lesson: I should have had a stop loss at $20.90. It would've tunneled right through that before landing where it did and I would've saved $122 of pain. I could've bought my 200 shares back at $20.90 and dodged that pain. But instead, I kept myself from establishing a decent stop loss. It's part art, part science to establish a proper stop loss that will keep me from exiting just as it's about to upswing again. But I needed one today.
Abbott started to dive and kept on going. I should've held off on purchasing ANY stock at the beginning of the day with something as significant as GE's news, especially considering how sterile ABT has been the past few weeks. I'm really hoping things bounce back Monday. I also need to examine stop losses to set now.
I also have a great deal more exposure with 200 shares. A relatively meager bounceback will bring this all back and a spike will boost me quite happily. I'm guessing and hoping TSRA makes it back into the high $21-$22 range next week, on no news.
Meanwhile, I'm still looking for a 19-day strategy. Ideas are welcome.
I hesitated in setting a stop loss for Tessera at, say, $21. In my mind, if it bounced to $21 again, it was just going to bounce back up and I didn't want to miss the swing up and lose some money. Instead, it tanked right through its support to $20.29. Jesus. Each of those cents it dropped cost me $2. I'm down $206 on $4,058 worth of Tessera, because I didn't set a stop loss.
Tessera isn't dropping on any news. It's not dropping because of a loss of value or patent issues. No, it dropped, like just about everything else today, on news that GE fucked up and didn't hit their estimates. Because GE is such a far-reaching conglomerate and because they have some exposure to subprime with GE Capital/Finance, they double-whammied and took everyone down with them.
Since I want to be in Tessera *anyway*, this was a particularly painful lesson: I should have had a stop loss at $20.90. It would've tunneled right through that before landing where it did and I would've saved $122 of pain. I could've bought my 200 shares back at $20.90 and dodged that pain. But instead, I kept myself from establishing a decent stop loss. It's part art, part science to establish a proper stop loss that will keep me from exiting just as it's about to upswing again. But I needed one today.
Abbott started to dive and kept on going. I should've held off on purchasing ANY stock at the beginning of the day with something as significant as GE's news, especially considering how sterile ABT has been the past few weeks. I'm really hoping things bounce back Monday. I also need to examine stop losses to set now.
I also have a great deal more exposure with 200 shares. A relatively meager bounceback will bring this all back and a spike will boost me quite happily. I'm guessing and hoping TSRA makes it back into the high $21-$22 range next week, on no news.
Meanwhile, I'm still looking for a 19-day strategy. Ideas are welcome.
Buying Abbott Laboratories (ABT)...
Lackluster day today. Tessera bounced around and ended low, no big deal, it'll bounce back up tomorrow. Will try to sell in the $22 range.
American Airlines completely surprised me with a BUNCH of short covers and support actually bringing it *up* 7%. Who knew.
Buying Abbott Laboratories in advance of their earnings announcement on the 16th. Could get bitten bad on this: 65 @ 53.91. Hoping to see maybe 3-7% gains, though. Could easily swing down up to 10% on missed expectations, etc. I'll bail if it looks choppy before the call. Shouldn't be an issue though, I think. Pharma is stable if there aren't any massive, unforeseen patent/lawsuit issues and Abbott has had some good news coming their way and little movement elsewhere so let's see if this pans out. Getting on board a good few days before the announcement to allow myself to profit from any gaps. Again, though, it could swing either way.
I'm beginning to look for a short-medium-term strategy for the trip. I'll be gone for a full 19 days and completely out of touch with regards to stock and such. I'm thinking I'll buy into either GOOG or back into BRK, since they're relatively low impact—but GOOG's earnings announcement could affect that a lot. Same with AAPL, but they have both traded really strongly this past month. Not sure if they'll correct back down or not.
American Airlines completely surprised me with a BUNCH of short covers and support actually bringing it *up* 7%. Who knew.
Buying Abbott Laboratories in advance of their earnings announcement on the 16th. Could get bitten bad on this: 65 @ 53.91. Hoping to see maybe 3-7% gains, though. Could easily swing down up to 10% on missed expectations, etc. I'll bail if it looks choppy before the call. Shouldn't be an issue though, I think. Pharma is stable if there aren't any massive, unforeseen patent/lawsuit issues and Abbott has had some good news coming their way and little movement elsewhere so let's see if this pans out. Getting on board a good few days before the announcement to allow myself to profit from any gaps. Again, though, it could swing either way.
I'm beginning to look for a short-medium-term strategy for the trip. I'll be gone for a full 19 days and completely out of touch with regards to stock and such. I'm thinking I'll buy into either GOOG or back into BRK, since they're relatively low impact—but GOOG's earnings announcement could affect that a lot. Same with AAPL, but they have both traded really strongly this past month. Not sure if they'll correct back down or not.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Averaging in TSRA...
Bad day on the market, but I bought another 100 shares of TSRA, this set at $21.31. As it closed at $21.66, not a bad scene. Should've sold off the first 100 at open, but no big deal. Since I bought the first 100 @ $21.55, still doing alright. I'll sell at least 100 if it hits $22.40-ish again. $22.60 or whatnot would be ideal.
Why not sell the whole load? Because I'm still expecting news on the Amkor settlement and don't really want to miss the bump I'm expecting we'll get on that. Though the settlement talks were to end on the 8th, so perhaps nothing going til next week, once a decision is made...
Want a near sure thing? Short AMR (American Airlines' parent company). They've had to nix another 1,000 flights for MD-80 checks and that's going to hurt them something awful. Note to American Airlines: Get this shit fixed before I fly you on the 25th. Seriously. They already tanked 10% Wednesday, so they might his some support (because stuff like this can only "damage" you temporarily so much) but I think we could see another 5-10% today. It'll probably gap before pre-market and not be worth waking up for, though. Let's take a look at what happens when the market opens.
Fun fact: If I had bought 10 shares of GOOG at the beginning of this and held them until Monday, without any other activity, I would've made $536, instead of the $374 I'm sitting on now. Not sure what'll happen with their earnings though, but might be a good buy if it gets beaten up again, which some are expecting.
Even sadder? If I had bought 34 shares of AAPL (about the same price as 10 of GOOG at the time) and sold now, I'd be up $998. Medium-term may really be the way to go, at least with some of my liquidity. Berkshire's only up $30 from when I first bought it though.
Why not sell the whole load? Because I'm still expecting news on the Amkor settlement and don't really want to miss the bump I'm expecting we'll get on that. Though the settlement talks were to end on the 8th, so perhaps nothing going til next week, once a decision is made...
Want a near sure thing? Short AMR (American Airlines' parent company). They've had to nix another 1,000 flights for MD-80 checks and that's going to hurt them something awful. Note to American Airlines: Get this shit fixed before I fly you on the 25th. Seriously. They already tanked 10% Wednesday, so they might his some support (because stuff like this can only "damage" you temporarily so much) but I think we could see another 5-10% today. It'll probably gap before pre-market and not be worth waking up for, though. Let's take a look at what happens when the market opens.
Fun fact: If I had bought 10 shares of GOOG at the beginning of this and held them until Monday, without any other activity, I would've made $536, instead of the $374 I'm sitting on now. Not sure what'll happen with their earnings though, but might be a good buy if it gets beaten up again, which some are expecting.
Even sadder? If I had bought 34 shares of AAPL (about the same price as 10 of GOOG at the time) and sold now, I'd be up $998. Medium-term may really be the way to go, at least with some of my liquidity. Berkshire's only up $30 from when I first bought it though.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
AMD in and out, back in to TSRA...
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| AMD | BOUGHT TO COVER | 500 | SHORT | $6.06 | $3,037.00 |
| TSRA | BOUGHT | 100 | MARGIN | $21.55 | $2,162.00 |
| AMD | SOLD SHORT | 500 | SHORT | $6.10 | $3,042.98 |
Tessera bounced around a bit more today before triggering my limit order 100 @ $21.55 before closing at $21.87 / $22.10 (A.E.) netting roughly $55. I'm going to set another trailing stop and let this one play on its own again. If it keeps wanting to trade in this range, I might as well ride it each way. I just hope I'm on board when the Amkor news comes through, assuming it's good news.
Also, a veritable bounty of earnings calls coming up over the next week. Time to pick some tasty picks... Bed Bath Beyond, Circuit City, Progressive... and a bunch bunch more the week after.
Looking to short AMD for a day...
AMD just announced a nasty 10% reduction of their workforce due to "deteriorating business conditions." Bad scene. Good time to try my hand at shorting for the first time ever.
Shorting, for those who didn't catch my lesson earlier, is pretty simple: I sell you stock I don't own. Don't worry, I'll make sure I come up with it. I'm just looking to buy it to cover my sale to you, at a lower price than I sold you it for. I sell you a share of Wal-Mart for $50. If I can buy it after a drop to $40, sweet, I just made $10.
Problem? If Wal-Mart doubles to $100, I still owe you the stock. So now I have to buy to cover the stock at $100, and I'm out $50.
I'm going to try to short at the open of pre-market. Which means I need to pass out soon in order to get any sleep. I'll see how this goes. I could easily lose some serious cash on it. But I want to try my hand at shorting and I think AMD could move.
Worst-case scenario: people see the move as prudent, AMD goes up.
Shorting, for those who didn't catch my lesson earlier, is pretty simple: I sell you stock I don't own. Don't worry, I'll make sure I come up with it. I'm just looking to buy it to cover my sale to you, at a lower price than I sold you it for. I sell you a share of Wal-Mart for $50. If I can buy it after a drop to $40, sweet, I just made $10.
Problem? If Wal-Mart doubles to $100, I still owe you the stock. So now I have to buy to cover the stock at $100, and I'm out $50.
I'm going to try to short at the open of pre-market. Which means I need to pass out soon in order to get any sleep. I'll see how this goes. I could easily lose some serious cash on it. But I want to try my hand at shorting and I think AMD could move.
Worst-case scenario: people see the move as prudent, AMD goes up.
Monday, April 7, 2008
TSRA & PLXS Sold, $74.01 profit...
Both TSRA and PLXS triggered their stops today:
Seeing as I originally bought PLXS for $2,601.99 total, and TSRA for $2,159.47, that leaves me with a net profit of $74.01 on both.
I am now completely exited from all positions, the first time that's been the case since I've started.
TSRA has been all over the place. Early on, it was trading in a range from $22.42 to $22.60 or so. My trailing stop was set for $22.41 and I watched it come very, very close several times before finally triggering. A bit later, the stock shot up to $22.95, but it's come back down to $22.37-ish. I have a standing limit order to buy back 100 @ $21.55, but it's doubtful it'll drop far enough to hit that today, since it's up on the day and opened at $22.
PLXS ended up costing me all of $5, but it's hovering right around the same point so I'm not too upset.
I'm beginning to formulate strategies for my upcoming trip. I'll be gone for over two weeks and won't have much access to internet. I'm definitely considering just buying two solid shares of BRK/B, especially if it keeps tanking like it has. It's down to $4,360 after having hit $4,466 when I sold it.
Google also looks poised for a breakout. It's hitting $480 right now, but it's been swinging back down as well. We'll see what happens when earnings come up soon.
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| TSRA | SOLD | 100 | MARGIN | $22.405 | $2,233.48 |
| PLXS | SOLD | 100 | MARGIN | $26.0901 | $2,601.99 |
I am now completely exited from all positions, the first time that's been the case since I've started.
TSRA has been all over the place. Early on, it was trading in a range from $22.42 to $22.60 or so. My trailing stop was set for $22.41 and I watched it come very, very close several times before finally triggering. A bit later, the stock shot up to $22.95, but it's come back down to $22.37-ish. I have a standing limit order to buy back 100 @ $21.55, but it's doubtful it'll drop far enough to hit that today, since it's up on the day and opened at $22.
PLXS ended up costing me all of $5, but it's hovering right around the same point so I'm not too upset.
I'm beginning to formulate strategies for my upcoming trip. I'll be gone for over two weeks and won't have much access to internet. I'm definitely considering just buying two solid shares of BRK/B, especially if it keeps tanking like it has. It's down to $4,360 after having hit $4,466 when I sold it.
Google also looks poised for a breakout. It's hitting $480 right now, but it's been swinging back down as well. We'll see what happens when earnings come up soon.
Safety Stops for TSRA & PLXS...
I've placed two sell orders for TSRA and PLXS.
I bought into TSRA 100 @ 21.455 and it's trading at 21.99 / 22.05 (A.E.). I think it has a lot of potential upward momentum, but if it dips back down, I can use that to my advantage. I've set a trailing stop of 0.26 pts so its floor is 21.73. If it dips below that, I'll reevaluate, but probably buy back in a little lower, instead of taking the hit for the dip. I think we'll hold steady in the upper 21s, but any significant dip will trigger the stop.
Again, this is a stock I'm holding for news on the Amkor arbitration. I think the other pending lawsuits are too far off to make this a short term play, so we'll see what happens, though I'm debating switching it from a trailing stop to a regular stop...
PLXS didn't bounce like I had hoped; the downgrade to "neutral" really hurt it. They finished some proper financing as expected late Friday, but I'm not sure it'll have much of an impact. Either way, it closed at 26.01 / 25.91 (A.E.) after I bought 100 @ 26.00, so I've set a T/S of 0.31 points, but I'm not sure I'll want to see that trigger without a nice spike. I'm looking to exit this position pretty quickly one way or another and I'll probably take a slight loss on it.
I bought into TSRA 100 @ 21.455 and it's trading at 21.99 / 22.05 (A.E.). I think it has a lot of potential upward momentum, but if it dips back down, I can use that to my advantage. I've set a trailing stop of 0.26 pts so its floor is 21.73. If it dips below that, I'll reevaluate, but probably buy back in a little lower, instead of taking the hit for the dip. I think we'll hold steady in the upper 21s, but any significant dip will trigger the stop.
Again, this is a stock I'm holding for news on the Amkor arbitration. I think the other pending lawsuits are too far off to make this a short term play, so we'll see what happens, though I'm debating switching it from a trailing stop to a regular stop...
PLXS didn't bounce like I had hoped; the downgrade to "neutral" really hurt it. They finished some proper financing as expected late Friday, but I'm not sure it'll have much of an impact. Either way, it closed at 26.01 / 25.91 (A.E.) after I bought 100 @ 26.00, so I've set a T/S of 0.31 points, but I'm not sure I'll want to see that trigger without a nice spike. I'm looking to exit this position pretty quickly one way or another and I'll probably take a slight loss on it.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Portfolio Recap
I started this blog and my "trading career" three weeks ago today.
Let's look at how I've fared:
As of right now, I'm up almost exactly $300. On exactly $7,500 invested. (Bear Stearns required an additional $1,000 that was put into play for liquidity purposes; that original $1,000 was withdrawn the next day.) So we're looking at a 4% return in under a month.
Not bad, but it can definitely be better. My PLXS play didn't bounce upward enough; buying in at $26 was a bad call; not enough volatility/upward motion to cause it to gap at open and it hovered in the $25.50s through most of the day before closing at $26.01. Gain before commissions: $1. We'll see what happens to it on Monday, but I'll close my position on that sooner or later; was just making an anticipated correction play.
Tessera is getting more and more interesting. The Ankor hearing should be wrapping up with results coming this week. It's performed shockingly well all week, though it slipped some 41 cents today. (And at 100 shares, I do feel it.) I'm not holding it for those tiny gains and losses. I'm hoping some big news pushes it up to the $30-$40 range. Positive Ankor news would be best, but MOTO settlement would be the holy grail. Unfortunately, Ankor is short-term. MOTO definitely isn't, it seems.
We'll see what happens next week. My holdings are worth exactly $4,800.00 right now, which leaves me with $2,700 in liquid assets.
Let's look at how I've fared:
As of right now, I'm up almost exactly $300. On exactly $7,500 invested. (Bear Stearns required an additional $1,000 that was put into play for liquidity purposes; that original $1,000 was withdrawn the next day.) So we're looking at a 4% return in under a month.
Not bad, but it can definitely be better. My PLXS play didn't bounce upward enough; buying in at $26 was a bad call; not enough volatility/upward motion to cause it to gap at open and it hovered in the $25.50s through most of the day before closing at $26.01. Gain before commissions: $1. We'll see what happens to it on Monday, but I'll close my position on that sooner or later; was just making an anticipated correction play.
Tessera is getting more and more interesting. The Ankor hearing should be wrapping up with results coming this week. It's performed shockingly well all week, though it slipped some 41 cents today. (And at 100 shares, I do feel it.) I'm not holding it for those tiny gains and losses. I'm hoping some big news pushes it up to the $30-$40 range. Positive Ankor news would be best, but MOTO settlement would be the holy grail. Unfortunately, Ankor is short-term. MOTO definitely isn't, it seems.
We'll see what happens next week. My holdings are worth exactly $4,800.00 right now, which leaves me with $2,700 in liquid assets.
Plexus takes a hit, looking for a bounce back....
Plexus Corp (PLXS) took a nasty hit yesterday on a single analyst's downgrade comments that don't reflect the company's broader holdings and capabilities. They ended up down $3.74 / 12.73% to $25.64. I've bought 100 @ $26 (which may be a bit too much, but we'll see if I should've just let market take over for regular session—this is how I learn lessons.)
I'll put a regular market session market bid for 100 shares and see where it closes. This one could easily bounce down a bit, but I'm guessing it oversold yesterday.
New strategy, but of course we'll see where we end up.
I'll put a regular market session market bid for 100 shares and see where it closes. This one could easily bounce down a bit, but I'm guessing it oversold yesterday.
New strategy, but of course we'll see where we end up.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
RIMM Sold, small profit...
Today's Completed Orders
Sold RIMM today with a trailing stop set at .75 that followed it along. Should've held on a little tighter, since it's trading in the $123.25 range now.
Realistically, I should've sold it yesterday in after hours when it spiked to $125. Definitely should've recognized that it wasn't going much higher than that and made off with it then. But alas.
Net profit after commission: $57.97 or roughly 1.6%. Not great, but better than taking a loss. Could've realized up to $220. This entire game is about timing and learning to read the market a little better. I definitely didn't anticipate a drop off to the $115 range right before market close last night, especially considering that the earnings announcement was scheduled for after the bell. I could've bought in then and sold a few hours later at the $124-$125 mark for a much healthier profit.
Had a margin call issued because of the free-ride this constituted. (Since I bought RIMM with unsettled funds and then sold it before said funds settle, it's considered sold on the margin. Since the previously sold securities I bought this with will settle up before my purchase or sale of RIMM, I'll pay no margin fees or anything though.)
Also, still holding Tessera which is up $0.38, for a net gain of $38. This is its third day of gains thus far, if it holds. I'm guessing it'll start to bounce down soon. Again, this is a medium-term holding until at LEAST the Ankor hearing results or some other info on their MOTO case come out. I'm sitting on a bit of a powder keg, but if the patents are truly valid, this could explode to the $40s. Or plummet to the $10 or lower if they're not.
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| RIMM | SOLD | 30 | MARGIN | $121.25 | $3,630.47 |
Realistically, I should've sold it yesterday in after hours when it spiked to $125. Definitely should've recognized that it wasn't going much higher than that and made off with it then. But alas.
Net profit after commission: $57.97 or roughly 1.6%. Not great, but better than taking a loss. Could've realized up to $220. This entire game is about timing and learning to read the market a little better. I definitely didn't anticipate a drop off to the $115 range right before market close last night, especially considering that the earnings announcement was scheduled for after the bell. I could've bought in then and sold a few hours later at the $124-$125 mark for a much healthier profit.
Had a margin call issued because of the free-ride this constituted. (Since I bought RIMM with unsettled funds and then sold it before said funds settle, it's considered sold on the margin. Since the previously sold securities I bought this with will settle up before my purchase or sale of RIMM, I'll pay no margin fees or anything though.)
Also, still holding Tessera which is up $0.38, for a net gain of $38. This is its third day of gains thus far, if it holds. I'm guessing it'll start to bounce down soon. Again, this is a medium-term holding until at LEAST the Ankor hearing results or some other info on their MOTO case come out. I'm sitting on a bit of a powder keg, but if the patents are truly valid, this could explode to the $40s. Or plummet to the $10 or lower if they're not.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Avoided VRTX, in for RIMM's earnings...
I decided to avoid VRTX; there was very little movement on it for the first hour.
RIMM has their earnings announcement at 5pm today but it was hovering in the $119 area. For some reason, I put a limit at 30 @ $118.85, which is unfortunate because it's closer to $118.00 now, but I thought I could capitalize if it dipped and took off again.
I'm expecting it to do well from an earnings perspective and bounce an extra 4-5 points, past $120. If it doesn't, I'll probably exit pretty quickly. Gotta watch out for free-riding, though I did establish the margin account so that wouldn't bother me so much.
We'll see what happens with their earnings and in after hours.
RIMM has their earnings announcement at 5pm today but it was hovering in the $119 area. For some reason, I put a limit at 30 @ $118.85, which is unfortunate because it's closer to $118.00 now, but I thought I could capitalize if it dipped and took off again.
I'm expecting it to do well from an earnings perspective and bounce an extra 4-5 points, past $120. If it doesn't, I'll probably exit pretty quickly. Gotta watch out for free-riding, though I did establish the margin account so that wouldn't bother me so much.
We'll see what happens with their earnings and in after hours.
Earnings announcements: BBY, MON, RIMM
Pre-Market: BBY & MON
Post: RIMM
Guessing: Best Buy (BBY) beats earnings estimates, posts a decent FY 09 outlook, gains 5% on the day after some rocky profit-taking, etc.
Monsanto (MON): Slight gain, hits expectations; it's been doing pretty well the past few days. No huge bump?
The Blackberry people (RIMM): On/slightly better than target, 3-5% bump during hours, 4-6% after hours?
Post: RIMM
Guessing: Best Buy (BBY) beats earnings estimates, posts a decent FY 09 outlook, gains 5% on the day after some rocky profit-taking, etc.
Monsanto (MON): Slight gain, hits expectations; it's been doing pretty well the past few days. No huge bump?
The Blackberry people (RIMM): On/slightly better than target, 3-5% bump during hours, 4-6% after hours?
Getting into VRTX too late?
I'm wanting about 100 shares of VRTX @ market ($25.41 for now), but it's had a meteoric gain over the past two days and I wonder to myself if it's still going to gain just a bit more over the next two days on cheery news about it's Hep-C drug trials. Fool had a powerful article on it and there's lots of other chatter, but it may very well be at the very peak of its gain for now.
The real question: is it overbought and will it correct abruptly tomorrow? Or will it continue its breakout and settle down a bit later?
I'm hoping for the latter and I think it'll level or dip just a little if nothing else; I don't see it collapsing all at once or anything, so if it's another low-loss RedHat to hedge what I think is a decent shot, then I'm willing to take that. I can add a stop @ 22 or something, but we'll see if that's necessary.
Preemptive lesson: stop buying at the peak of a breakout momentum play on old news.
Also, RedHat jumped 8% today. Shucks. The other question: market or pre-market? Probably sleeping in and letting it ride. Let's see what happens.
The real question: is it overbought and will it correct abruptly tomorrow? Or will it continue its breakout and settle down a bit later?
I'm hoping for the latter and I think it'll level or dip just a little if nothing else; I don't see it collapsing all at once or anything, so if it's another low-loss RedHat to hedge what I think is a decent shot, then I'm willing to take that. I can add a stop @ 22 or something, but we'll see if that's necessary.
Preemptive lesson: stop buying at the peak of a breakout momentum play on old news.
Also, RedHat jumped 8% today. Shucks. The other question: market or pre-market? Probably sleeping in and letting it ride. Let's see what happens.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Trailing Stop Triggered: So long, Visa
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| V | SOLD | 35 | CASH | $61.75 | $2,154.23 |
After having bought Visa at its post-IPO glowing peak for 35 @ $64.95 / $2,280.95, it sold today after triggering a 3% trailing stop at $2,154.23, net loss of $126.72. It never pushed past the resistance I regrettably bought at, and while I still expect it to surge into the $100s in the coming months, perhaps after an earnings statement and on strong transactional growth, it wasn't doing it anytime soon.
This was an issue of liquidity—I had wanted in at $55 and got in at $64.95 instead.
This actually represents the first position I've exited at a loss and it's very clearly not going to be the last. It's also a good lesson in momentum and resistance. I had figured it would want to push clear the level I bought it at, but it only spiked an extra few cents and never hit that level again.
Alas. Let's see what happens with TSRA and what I can buy with the liquidity I have from the V and BRK sales. I've got $5,550 available for trading. Time to make some use of it.
Sold BRK, Bought TSRA
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| TSRA | BOUGHT | 53 | CASH | $21.45 | $1,143.85 |
| BRK/B | SOLD | 1 | CASH | $4,466.00 | $4,458.97 |
| TSRA | BOUGHT | 47 | CASH | $21.46 | $1,015.62 |
I originally bought BRK/B 1 @ $4,374.50 (incl. comm.), so selling at $4,458.97 yielded me $84.47. Which is nice, considering the "fun" I'm experiencing with TSRA. I'm in for a penny and a pound at $2,159.57. Hopefully, the patents don't destroy me. But I'm still wanting to stick around and hoping for a good outcome there. I won't buy in any more than that.
TSRA dipped on news of the patent stuff which stung my position, but that's what happens.
Overall? For now? Up $158.87. Visa needs to bounce one way or another and hopefully not erase my BSC gains.
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