A pregnant pause... entering Tessera with no available out for 3 days... (TSRA)

Tessera is a microelectronics company that holds a bunch of patents directly correlated to miniaturization technologies used in the semiconductor industry. They receive lots of royalties and licensing fees from Intel and other major semiconductor manufacturers.

Motorola has been trying to bitch slap the patent infringement suit Tessera has brought against them, which is kinda a big deal: If the patents are indeed not infringing, there's something to be said in a worst-case-scenario kinda way that they could be overthrown entirely and Tessera could lose their current clients. Bad news.

As a result of this fear, and several USPTO re-exams tossing claims, Tessera's share price completely tanked in February, from $40 to a low of $13 in seriously about a week. Ouch.

An ITC judge issues a stay against them, which killed them further. Tessera clarified that USPTO's claim-tossing was NOT the same as overturning their patents; quite different. This helped them out a bit. But yesterday, the ITC appeals panel unanimously overturned the stay and is allowing them to go forth with their claims. That caused a MASSIVE spike of 33% (+5.44 to $21.93) Friday alone.

Here's the thing: Tessera is a pretty stable company in terms of operation and IP. They have a bunch of major players paying major licensing fees to them for their technology. An analyst at Lehman Brothers is putting a price target of $46. From an intrinsic value standpoint, you're looking around the $40s at least, where it was trading for most of last year.

What's that mean? It's a steal at twice the price, even at $22. I'm going to put my liquid $1,000 into it @ market on Monday.

The only problem is that I free-rode Friday with Red Hat. (Bought in and then sold with unsettled funds.) If I do that twice, I have my account frozen for 90 days. This is why I need to sign my margin authorization. (Margin accounts aren't held to the free-ride stipulations. Even when you're trading in cash.)

So I'm effectively locked into this one for 3 days. But I think it'll be well worth it. I'm not sure how long I'll hold onto it. Any settlement or further upward movement in this court case could cause this stock to absolutely skyrocket. If they "win" in any form, we're talking a HUGE boost. It'll reaffirm their position beyond all doubt (as opposed to the unanimous overturn which simply helped them quite a bit) AND lock in a major cash influx. Huge potential here.

And if the ITC was overturning the stay unanimously, they clearly think there's some merit there. Not to mention the fact that Intel and a bunch of others are already paying the licensing fees without a peep. Some real potential here. Not sure what I want to establish as an exit strategy; if I want to hold medium or wait for a ruling on the case... if they failed to secure a victory on the case, all hell could break loose.

Either way, I'm seeing some decent short-ish term growth on the horizon. Maybe a jump on Monday, but having the free-ride limitation might actually help me out and not panic if it slips a little on Monday. (I fully expect it to go up though; there's going to be major support @ 22 and gnashing of short-covers.)

Open Orders

Status Symbol Action Qty Order Type Duration Order Time Session QUEUED TSRA BUY 47 MARKET DAY 3/29/2008 1:45 AM Regular

Trailing stops triggered: GOOG & AAPL sold

SELL	1	AAPL	$141.47	$134.46			3/27/2008	1:38:28 PM	4/1/2008
SELL	1	GOOG	$446.00	$438.99			3/27/2008	9:30:01 AM	4/1/2008

The trailing stops I had established for both Google and Apple triggered today, at $446.00 and $141.47 (or $438.99 / $134.45 after commission.) I had purchased GOOG at $435.94, leaving a whopping profit of $3.05, and AAPL at $130.35 leaving a profit of $134.46. I specifically set the trailing stops to trigger once I had hit my near-breakeven point, after commissions.

In the end, Scottrade made more on these than I, with $28 in total profit. This is why I need to be entering in at more than one share a trade volume.

Visa's next on its way out and then we'll see what happens with Berkshire. My extra, boosted deposit cleared its withdrawal after settlement, putting me firmly at $7,687.24 / $7,500.00 or up about $187.24 or nearly 2.5% in about two weeks. Not bad. Need more plays like Bear Stearns. In. Out. Quick turnaround. Closer to day trading. But that also brings a lot more risk with it. We'll see what happens.

And I'll make an AAPL/GOOG play before their earnings calls later next month. Which way I'll bet is anyone's guess. Hearing some scary things about Google's Q1 results, but AAPL might be hot. On a day with exceeded expectations, you can always expect a 5%+ gain. Likewise a loss on failed expectations, for certain.

Preparing my exits...

Symbol	Last price	Change	Shares	Cost basis	Mkt value	Gain	Gain %	Day's gain
AAPL	140.98	1.45	1	123.35	140.98	17.63	14.29	1.45
GOOG	450.78	-9.78	1	428.94	450.78	21.84	5.09	-9.78
BRK.B	4300	-41	1	4367.5	4300	-67.5	-1.55	-41
V	63.1	3.37	35	2273.95	2208.5	-65.45	-2.88	117.95
				$7,193.74	$7,100.26	($93.48)	-1.30%	$68.62

Someday, I'll figure out how to accurately represent my performance in the market. The above Google Finance output, for instance, doesn't much care about my BSC deal which netted me $280, instead highlighting that I've lost on V and BRK.B.

Visa had a decent day today and didn't hit my STOP for it. I've established 3% trailing stops for both GOOG and AAPL, which will put me at an extremely meager profit for each of them; it's stupid to be playing with that cost with such low volume. The commissions make it completely inefficient. Lesson learned.

I'm also considering pulling out of BRK.B. It's not underperforming or anything; I expect in a year or less it'll be breaking $5,000 or more. It's just boring and I think tying up that much capital is a bit of a pain when I have such little to work with. It's a decent hedge though, and keeps me from blowing everything at once. But if I play smart and keep my eggs in separate enough baskets at all times, I'll be fine. I may exit once it pushes past my commission-break even. Meh.

Fun with trailing stops...

Open Orders

Status Symbol Action Qty Order Type Order Price Duration Order Time Session OPEN V SELL 35 TRAILING STOP 15% $54.6975 GTC 3/21/2008 4:25 PM Regular

Today's a holiday so nothing going. I've placed a trailing stop (more on them here) order for 15% on my Visa holding, since I want it to be a medium-term play and while the market settles, it could have some volatility yet. If it drops 15% or more at any point, a stop will trigger a market order to sell all 35 shares I own.

What makes it a trailing stop is that the "15%" mark is relative to the high point for the stock. As the stock's price increases, the stop "trails" or moves with it, providing a moving safety net that allows you to lock in profits. The order price is listed at $54.6975 because that represents the current 15% stop loss level. And if it triggers that, it'll suck and I'll lose some money, but if it collapses back to $50 or some such, I'd lose quite a bit more. I can always rebuy on the dip. Or, perhaps not buy on the peak in the first place. :-)

The GTC indicates that it's "Good Til Canceled" which is pretty self-explanatory. We'll revisit this order next week and see what happens with good ol' V.