Damn. 17% in aftermarket from $445 to $525. Should've jumped on board, but it was looking kinda scary with their new quality controls. Be greedy when others are fearful, though...
ABT is just festering for no good reason. I'm going to hold it a few more days and then dump it if we don't get Xience news. Sad that it beats expectations, beats guidance and posts strong numbers and still drops. Worse still that it's doing this in the midst of plenty of other pharmas posting bad numbers and it's not able to pick up slack from them.
Still waiting on Amkor news from TSRA... Still have high hopes.
I think I'm going to buy into AAPL for next week's earnings call and go long, perhaps for the trip. We'll see how risky I'm feeling. For now, I'm still down about $100 total. Kinda sucks. (The Coverstor shows the return on my brother's in-and-out movement, so that's why it's showing a positive return.)
Showing posts with label goog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label goog. Show all posts
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Trailing stops triggered: GOOG & AAPL sold
| SELL | 1 | AAPL | $141.47 | $134.46 | 3/27/2008 | 1:38:28 PM | 4/1/2008 | ||
| SELL | 1 | GOOG | $446.00 | $438.99 | 3/27/2008 | 9:30:01 AM | 4/1/2008 |
In the end, Scottrade made more on these than I, with $28 in total profit. This is why I need to be entering in at more than one share a trade volume.
Visa's next on its way out and then we'll see what happens with Berkshire. My extra, boosted deposit cleared its withdrawal after settlement, putting me firmly at $7,687.24 / $7,500.00 or up about $187.24 or nearly 2.5% in about two weeks. Not bad. Need more plays like Bear Stearns. In. Out. Quick turnaround. Closer to day trading. But that also brings a lot more risk with it. We'll see what happens.
And I'll make an AAPL/GOOG play before their earnings calls later next month. Which way I'll bet is anyone's guess. Hearing some scary things about Google's Q1 results, but AAPL might be hot. On a day with exceeded expectations, you can always expect a 5%+ gain. Likewise a loss on failed expectations, for certain.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Preparing my exits...
| Symbol | Last price | Change | Shares | Cost basis | Mkt value | Gain | Gain % | Day's gain |
| AAPL | 140.98 | 1.45 | 1 | 123.35 | 140.98 | 17.63 | 14.29 | 1.45 |
| GOOG | 450.78 | -9.78 | 1 | 428.94 | 450.78 | 21.84 | 5.09 | -9.78 |
| BRK.B | 4300 | -41 | 1 | 4367.5 | 4300 | -67.5 | -1.55 | -41 |
| V | 63.1 | 3.37 | 35 | 2273.95 | 2208.5 | -65.45 | -2.88 | 117.95 |
| $7,193.74 | $7,100.26 | ($93.48) | -1.30% | $68.62 |
Someday, I'll figure out how to accurately represent my performance in the market. The above Google Finance output, for instance, doesn't much care about my BSC deal which netted me $280, instead highlighting that I've lost on V and BRK.B.
Visa had a decent day today and didn't hit my STOP for it. I've established 3% trailing stops for both GOOG and AAPL, which will put me at an extremely meager profit for each of them; it's stupid to be playing with that cost with such low volume. The commissions make it completely inefficient. Lesson learned.
I'm also considering pulling out of BRK.B. It's not underperforming or anything; I expect in a year or less it'll be breaking $5,000 or more. It's just boring and I think tying up that much capital is a bit of a pain when I have such little to work with. It's a decent hedge though, and keeps me from blowing everything at once. But if I play smart and keep my eggs in separate enough baskets at all times, I'll be fine. I may exit once it pushes past my commission-break even. Meh.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Starting up...
Today marks my first official foray into the murky depths of investing. I'm keeping this blog as a sort of stop gap, to enforce critical thinking about my decisions and to give me a good record of what the hell I was thinking at any given moment. I'm anticipating there'll be a healthy dose of rationalization when I experience some losses, but that's all part of the fun.
A little about myself: I'm 22 years old and run a web development company. I've never invested in anything except a middle-of-the-road online savings account which, thanks to the fed, is currently only yielding 3.55% APY. I think I can do better.
I've started off by transferring $5,000 out of my savings account and into my Scottrade account and making a few buys:
So, one share each of Berkshire Hathaway, Apple and Google.
Berkshire Hathaway, for the uninformed, is Warren Buffet's company. It's a mega-conglomerate that owns a great deal of holdings across a bunch of different industries. Warren has built up this portfolio in a strikingly intelligent manner and managed the business with a flare whose genius I'm sure I don't quite yet comprehend.
After reading his shareholder Owner's Manual (PDF), I found myself really, really liking his approach and perspective. It seems so straightforward, but a lot of what he espouses (slow, long-term, stable growth) is sometimes lost in the fray and trampled by greed nowadays. He makes it absolutely clear that he intends to build the true value of the company by working diligently to improve operations, properly manage float (a great deal of which is provided by GEICO) and by letting the managers at each organization do their job, relatively hands-off.
BRK/B indicates that I bought a Berkshire Hathaway Class B share. A Class B tightly correlates to about 1/30th of a Class A share, though it only holds 1/200th the vote Class A shares maintain. Class A BRK is trading roughly at $131,940. Per share. Needless to say, I'm not exactly able to afford one of those right now. (The stock is at such a high value because it has never split, a tactic further representative of Warren's ideal that you should be in BRK shares for the long haul. It's his nest egg and he wants it to be yours, too.)
By the end of the day, here's where I ended up:
Total Market Value:$4,967.19
So roughly up $47.40. Less the $21.00 in trading fees, I'm looking at $26.40 profit, or, you know, roughly 0.5%.
My outlook on each of these positions:
Berkshire
I'm going to hold onto BRK/B for the long-term. I've heard some really encouraging things the point to a proper valuation closer to $5,500-$6,000. Some people believe it'll hit that by summer, most people agree it'll get close to that within 18 months. Naturally, people believing isn't enough to make it so, but Berkshire is often considered relatively inflation- and recession-resistant. Mr. Buffet explains as much in the aforementioned Owner's Manual: A recessed market allows Berkshire to pick up on some great deals and buy out some very undervalued companies when the time is just right.
Berkshire should represent some significant growth and present as a relatively low-risk position for me over the next year or so.
Apple
Apple's taken it in the shorts since the beginning of the year, sliding 70 points and about 35% from its 52-week high of $202.96. Ouch. Why? A bar set a bit too high, and a penchant for missing expectations. Apple has delivered with the iPhone—an incredibly popular device that should represent a consistent money maker for them. Their latest line of Macbook Pros are gaining market share and since the switch to Intel-based chips, they've seen incredible adoption rates.
So where have they gone wrong? They've had some issues keeping the residuals up with the iPhone. Users are abandoning AT&T and in doing so, cutting Apple's residual check from the telco. Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer played the spin game with this issue a few days ago, stating that they viewed it as a positive thing: an indicator of future demand. That's all good and well, but perhaps Apple should be looking for a trap door out of their contract with AT&T that would let them also receive residual kickbacks through T-Mobile. TMO would love to sell the iPhone, I'm sure, and unlocking the device isn't exactly a basic task, though some software is available that makes it much easier.
Add to that a lackluster MacWorld in January, where the best thing going for Apple was a thin-and-not-too-functional version of the Macbook and you see why investors aren't the most excited right now. But watch: we'll see the iPhone continue to be a great seller. Apple will release higher capacities and continue to evolve their iPod line. And they'll continue selling Macbooks and Macbook Pros like hotcakes.
About 45 minutes ago, some news came off the wire that the government of Japan was investigating a potential defect in the iPod nano that may cause it to, you know, erupt into flames. That could ding the share price tomorrow, but I'm guessing it won't have too big an impact. Apple's due to bring back some value, and I'll probably sell if it gets close to $165 or drops below $100.
Google
The GOOG has taken about the same thrashing since the start of the year as Apple. We're talking a very similar story: down 271 points, about 38% from a near-52-week-high of $710 on Dec. 26 to a 52-week-low of $413.62 yesterday. It rebounded today a bit to close at $439.84.
Google's taken such a beating because they simply couldn't keep reporting exceptional growth quarter after quarter. There are diminishing returns and Google's starting to feel the burn of a slip in click-through-rates on their primary product, AdWords. Today's news that the EU has cleared Google's planned acquisition of online advertising behemoth DoubleClick can only help things. This will broaden Google's reach a great deal and make it considerably harder for rival Microsoft to gain the traction they'd like to with their AdCenter product.
Today's approval completes the acquisition for Google. I'm guessing we'll see some afterglow from that announcement tomorrow and some continued growth from the brand to a perhaps more balanced $550 or so over the next three months. We'll see what happens at the Q1 2008 earnings release on April 17th. If they've cleaned house a bit more this quarter, we'll see some positive activity. If they've failed to wow again, we could be in for another market-adjusting slide.
I plan on adding another $5,000 to the pot in the next month or so. I think I'll play that set a bit more closely and try some much shorter term holdings. I'm learning a great deal about things like Dollar Cost Averaging and other fun things like that.
We'll see how this goes.
A little about myself: I'm 22 years old and run a web development company. I've never invested in anything except a middle-of-the-road online savings account which, thanks to the fed, is currently only yielding 3.55% APY. I think I can do better.
I've started off by transferring $5,000 out of my savings account and into my Scottrade account and making a few buys:
| Symbol | Action | Qty | Acct Type | Price | Total |
| AAPL | BOUGHT | 1 | CASH | $123.35 | $130.35 |
| GOOG | BOUGHT | 1 | CASH | $428.94 | $435.94 |
| BRK/B | BOUGHT | 1 | CASH | $4,367.50 | $4,374.50 |
So, one share each of Berkshire Hathaway, Apple and Google.
Berkshire Hathaway, for the uninformed, is Warren Buffet's company. It's a mega-conglomerate that owns a great deal of holdings across a bunch of different industries. Warren has built up this portfolio in a strikingly intelligent manner and managed the business with a flare whose genius I'm sure I don't quite yet comprehend.
After reading his shareholder Owner's Manual (PDF), I found myself really, really liking his approach and perspective. It seems so straightforward, but a lot of what he espouses (slow, long-term, stable growth) is sometimes lost in the fray and trampled by greed nowadays. He makes it absolutely clear that he intends to build the true value of the company by working diligently to improve operations, properly manage float (a great deal of which is provided by GEICO) and by letting the managers at each organization do their job, relatively hands-off.
BRK/B indicates that I bought a Berkshire Hathaway Class B share. A Class B tightly correlates to about 1/30th of a Class A share, though it only holds 1/200th the vote Class A shares maintain. Class A BRK is trading roughly at $131,940. Per share. Needless to say, I'm not exactly able to afford one of those right now. (The stock is at such a high value because it has never split, a tactic further representative of Warren's ideal that you should be in BRK shares for the long haul. It's his nest egg and he wants it to be yours, too.)
By the end of the day, here's where I ended up:
| Symbol | Qty | Price | Mkt Value |
| AAPL | 1 | 127.3501 | 127.3501 |
| BRK/B | 1 | 4,400.00 | 4,400.00 |
| GOOG | 1 | 439.8399 | 439.8399 |
 |
So roughly up $47.40. Less the $21.00 in trading fees, I'm looking at $26.40 profit, or, you know, roughly 0.5%.
My outlook on each of these positions:
Berkshire
I'm going to hold onto BRK/B for the long-term. I've heard some really encouraging things the point to a proper valuation closer to $5,500-$6,000. Some people believe it'll hit that by summer, most people agree it'll get close to that within 18 months. Naturally, people believing isn't enough to make it so, but Berkshire is often considered relatively inflation- and recession-resistant. Mr. Buffet explains as much in the aforementioned Owner's Manual: A recessed market allows Berkshire to pick up on some great deals and buy out some very undervalued companies when the time is just right.
Berkshire should represent some significant growth and present as a relatively low-risk position for me over the next year or so.
Apple
Apple's taken it in the shorts since the beginning of the year, sliding 70 points and about 35% from its 52-week high of $202.96. Ouch. Why? A bar set a bit too high, and a penchant for missing expectations. Apple has delivered with the iPhone—an incredibly popular device that should represent a consistent money maker for them. Their latest line of Macbook Pros are gaining market share and since the switch to Intel-based chips, they've seen incredible adoption rates.
So where have they gone wrong? They've had some issues keeping the residuals up with the iPhone. Users are abandoning AT&T and in doing so, cutting Apple's residual check from the telco. Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer played the spin game with this issue a few days ago, stating that they viewed it as a positive thing: an indicator of future demand. That's all good and well, but perhaps Apple should be looking for a trap door out of their contract with AT&T that would let them also receive residual kickbacks through T-Mobile. TMO would love to sell the iPhone, I'm sure, and unlocking the device isn't exactly a basic task, though some software is available that makes it much easier.
Add to that a lackluster MacWorld in January, where the best thing going for Apple was a thin-and-not-too-functional version of the Macbook and you see why investors aren't the most excited right now. But watch: we'll see the iPhone continue to be a great seller. Apple will release higher capacities and continue to evolve their iPod line. And they'll continue selling Macbooks and Macbook Pros like hotcakes.
About 45 minutes ago, some news came off the wire that the government of Japan was investigating a potential defect in the iPod nano that may cause it to, you know, erupt into flames. That could ding the share price tomorrow, but I'm guessing it won't have too big an impact. Apple's due to bring back some value, and I'll probably sell if it gets close to $165 or drops below $100.
The GOOG has taken about the same thrashing since the start of the year as Apple. We're talking a very similar story: down 271 points, about 38% from a near-52-week-high of $710 on Dec. 26 to a 52-week-low of $413.62 yesterday. It rebounded today a bit to close at $439.84.
Google's taken such a beating because they simply couldn't keep reporting exceptional growth quarter after quarter. There are diminishing returns and Google's starting to feel the burn of a slip in click-through-rates on their primary product, AdWords. Today's news that the EU has cleared Google's planned acquisition of online advertising behemoth DoubleClick can only help things. This will broaden Google's reach a great deal and make it considerably harder for rival Microsoft to gain the traction they'd like to with their AdCenter product.
Today's approval completes the acquisition for Google. I'm guessing we'll see some afterglow from that announcement tomorrow and some continued growth from the brand to a perhaps more balanced $550 or so over the next three months. We'll see what happens at the Q1 2008 earnings release on April 17th. If they've cleaned house a bit more this quarter, we'll see some positive activity. If they've failed to wow again, we could be in for another market-adjusting slide.
I plan on adding another $5,000 to the pot in the next month or so. I think I'll play that set a bit more closely and try some much shorter term holdings. I'm learning a great deal about things like Dollar Cost Averaging and other fun things like that.
We'll see how this goes.
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